How likely is a flu pandemic? - The Guardian 26th November 2007

The World Health Organisation puts the risk level at "phase 3" out of six on its pandemic alert scale, which means that a new flu strain has appeared in humans but is not yet spreading from person to person. It is impossible to predict when the next flu pandemic will happen, but experts say we are living on borrowed time. The big worry is the particularly deadly strain of H5N1 bird flu circulating mainly in south-east Asia - so far it has infected 335 people and killed 206 (mainly poor farmers who live in close proximity with their poultry). If it were to mutate or swap genes with a human flu virus so that it was more easily transmitted between humans, we could face a pandemic.

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